SAN ANTONIO — Don't start honking on Commerce just yet, but after a few key tweaks the Spurs are playing some good basketball to start 2024.
Gregg Popovich spent the first half of Victor Wembanyama's rookie season exploring the kid's vast potential and experimenting with the team around him, and after a rough start he's made some changes that are clearly working. It doesn't take a basketball Einstein to slot the 7'4" alien at center and give him a real point guard, and it hasn't turned the team into contenders overnight, but the progress is undeniable.
Maybe the changes were obvious, and maybe they were overdue. But they're here now, and based on the impressive results they should be here to stay.
Centering Wembanyama
Coming into the season the Spurs wanted to pair Wembanyama with Zach Collins, with the idea of letting Collins handle the big man dirty work while Wemby did his thing on the wing.
But Wembanyama doesn't need to be protected from the physicality in the paint, and he's proving to be more impactful and efficient as a center since Popovich moved him there on Dec. 8. He's shown measurable improvement in several areas despite a minutes restriction after an ankle sprain.
Before Dec. 8:
- 30.1 minutes per game
- 18.9 points
- 9.7 rebounds
- 2.5 assists
- 2.6 blocks
- 1.3 steals
- 43% FG
- 26.5% 3PT
- 82% FT
After Dec. 8:
- 26.6 minutes
- 20.5 points
- 11.1 rebounds
- 3.6 assists
- 3.9 blocks
- 0.9 steals
- 50% FG
- 33% 3PT
- 79% FT
Game Log since Dec. 8:
- 21 points, 20 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 blocks, 1 steal
- 15 points, 18 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 blocks
- 30 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 6 blocks, 3 steals
- 13 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals
- 17 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 blocks, 1 steal
- 7 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals
- 15 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 blocks, 1 steal
- 30 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 7 blocks
- 21 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block
- 20 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 blocks
- 27 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal
- 24 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 blocks, 1 steal
- 16 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists
- 26 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks
- 26 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 blocks, 2 steals
Shifting Wembanyama to the five doesn't make him any more or less skilled, but it does streamline his role toward high-leverage situations where he can show his formidable strengths. As the power forward he was given the freedom to float around and explore his range, but as the center his responsibilities are more clearly defined, and he seems to be thriving on the additional structure.
Wembanyama is already the ultimate deterrent. At 7'4" he erases everything at the rim, but he also moves in space like a horror movie monster.
He leads the league in blocks with 3.2 per game even though he defends just 14.4 shots per game. Brook Lopez blocks 2.9 shots per game, but he's the closest defender on a league-leading 23.4 attempts per game. Nobody wants to test Wemby, and it's easy to see why. Of the 31 players who defend more shots per game, nobody holds opponents to a lower percentage.
It calls to mind a recent quote from Wemby about demoralizing his opponents: "Traumatizing, sometimes, is the goal."
Before the move to center, Wemby was defending 12.7 shots per game and 6.1 inside of 10 feet. After the move, he's up to 16.5 shots defended and 9.4 inside of 10 feet. The Spurs had the NBA's worst defense last year, and the fourth-worst this year before Wembanyama became the anchor, but since then they've improved to being average on that end.
Playing center also pushes Wemby toward his most dominant side on offense, and that's the end of the floor where San Antonio seems to need the most help right now.
One of the most frustrating parts of Wembanyama's play to start his rookie year was his tendency to settle for mid-range jumpers that are inefficient shots for most NBA players, but especially inefficient for a 7'4" guy who dominates at the rim.
Before the switch he shot 74-114 (65%) inside of 8 feet, 57-194 (29%) outside of 8 feet, and 26-98 (26.5%) from three.
After the switch he's shot 82-118 (69.5%) inside of 8 feet, 32-112 (28.5%) outside of 8 feet, and 23-70 (33%) from three.
The hope is that Wemby eventually improves his percentages like Kevin Durant and many others did after struggling out of the gate, but even if he does his best shots will always be right at the rim. It's a good thing he's building the habit of forcing his way there instead of just shooting a jumper like the rest of us mere mortals.
In November he got 17.7% of his points from mid-range and 42.6% of them in the paint. In January, he's at 2.9% from mid-range and 57.6% in the paint. He's cranked the dial from "Settle" to "Annihilate," and the stretches where he completely takes over provide a hopeful glimpse into how truly unstoppable he could be in the future.
Solving the Point Guard Problem
Of the 13 three-man units Gregg Popovich has used the most this season, none have outscored their opponents when they shared the floor. The trio of Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama comes the closest, with a net rating of -1.1 in their 319 minutes together.
Keep scrolling until you see Tre Jones for the first time, and you'll also find the first group winning their minutes. In fact, just five of the 31 groups with more than 150 minutes played for the Spurs this year have a positive net rating, and all of them include Jones. His steady hand at point guard makes things easier for Wemby and everyone else.
The combination of Tre Jones, Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama is throttling opponents by almost 20 points per 100 possessions, by far the best mark on the team for any trio playing over 100 minutes together. That group hardly got any run to start the year, but it's Pop's second-most-used trio since he moved Jones into the starting unit at the beginning of January.
Jones doesn't fix everything, but he's unlocked a new level of play for San Antonio during this stretch. The Spurs have played six competitive games in a row, and they've even won the third quarter in each of those contests after redefining awful in the dictionary via that period for most of the year.
The new starting lineup with Jones, Julian Champagnie, Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Wembanyama is posting a scorching net rating of +16.7. Swap in Keldon for Champagnie, and that closing lineup that Pop goes to is +21.2 on the year in 45 total minutes.
In five games sharing the starting unit with Wemby, Jones has assisted him 13 times. In 20 games as the starting point guard to begin the season, Sochan assisted him just 10 times. Not all of that falls on Sochan, the second-year power forward who Pop decided to experiment with at the point. The playmaking was understandably hit or miss, and Wemby shot an unfathomably bad 21% off of passes from him in that ill-fated quarter of the season.
But it does illustrate how Jones uses his command of the floor to soothe a pain that has bothered San Antonio all year as they've worked to maximize the talents of their star rookie. They averaged 15.4 turnovers per game before and 11.7 after Jones joined the starting unit.
As frustrating as the Sochan experiment was overall, especially in hindsight, giving him all those reps did seem to strengthen his playmaking. It's a valuable skill in his ideal offensive role as more of a secondary playmaker and connecting piece. Working off the ball opens up more of his fantastic cutting and vastly improved perimeter shooting, and using him as a screener opens up many of the same size mismatches the team worked to exploit when he played the point.
Freed from the responsibility of running the offense, he has more energy to lock in defensively.
Speaking of energy and defense, fellow second-year player Blake Wesley has slid into the backup point guard role and done an admirable job. He's spent much of the season refining the raw athletic game he entered the league with, and now he looks comfortable and controlled out on the floor. The eventual return of Collins should help the bench unit as well.
Jones may not be the long-term starter for the Spurs given his size and shaky outside shot, but his inclusion in the starting lineup helps get the Spurs closer to winning while giving each player a chance to show what they can do when a skilled downhill creator is orchestrating much of the offense.