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TROPICAL UPDATE: Pre-season life in the Caribbean?

The GFS and European forecast models are hinting at a possible tropical development mid/late next week, May 18-20.

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The GFS and European forecast models continue to show signs of possible tropical development of some sort in the Southern Caribbean - as early as May 18-20...this WED-FRI.  

Credit: Alan Holt
Tropical Development Possible May 18-20

The GFS has been by far the more bullish of the two, wanting to pull a possible system northward next weekend/early next week. It should be noted - the GFS is known for overdoing early season storms, so I'm not convinced on this solution. There's also a ton of wind shear forecast in the gulf by the GFS, which would make it very difficult for anything tropical to survive.

Credit: Alan Holt
GFS Wind Shear Forecast, May 22

The European model wants to drift a weaker low through Central America and into the Pacific after May 20.

The most plausible solution, in my opinion, is that either a weak tropical depression develops and fizzles out quickly somewhere near Central America, or nothing happens at all.  Either way, we are nearing tropical season and it's best practice to be prepared.

The National Hurricane Center should resume their tropical outlooks today, May 15.

Holt out

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Hurricane Season runs from June 1 - November 30

Credit: Alan Holt