CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The GFS and European forecast models continue to show signs of possible tropical development of some sort in the Southern Caribbean - as early as May 18-20...this WED-FRI.
The GFS has been by far the more bullish of the two, wanting to pull a possible system northward next weekend/early next week. It should be noted - the GFS is known for overdoing early season storms, so I'm not convinced on this solution. There's also a ton of wind shear forecast in the gulf by the GFS, which would make it very difficult for anything tropical to survive.
The European model wants to drift a weaker low through Central America and into the Pacific after May 20.
The most plausible solution, in my opinion, is that either a weak tropical depression develops and fizzles out quickly somewhere near Central America, or nothing happens at all. Either way, we are nearing tropical season and it's best practice to be prepared.
The National Hurricane Center should resume their tropical outlooks today, May 15.
Holt out
RELATED: 2021 Hurricane Guide: Download Now
------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Season runs from June 1 - November 30
