The Roundup: Why the Spurs (Could) Win It All

As the NBA tips off tonight, we’re happy to launch a new, weekly feature exclusive to Kens5.com: the Spurs Roundup.

Every Wednesday, we're going to take a look at the week that's past and the week ahead. We'll bring you trends and analysis and -- above all -- the proper context to break down this NBA season. If we do our jobs correctly, we might even make you sound smart at the watercooler.

If you've seen any of the media outlets that cover Tony Parker on a regular basis – that list now including everyone from InStyle to SI to TMZ – then you’ve probably heard the news: the Spurs are a trendy pick to win the NBA title this year.

Starting Wednesday night against the New Orleans Hornets, we'll see whether or not this trendy pick can win meaningful games with any style.

So to kick off the season, the Roundup has done some investigating into the Spurs title chances, and we’re thinking that there are six factors -- three from the Spurs' roster and three from around the NBA -- that could decide whether or not the Spurs will win the NBA Championship. Let's start with:

The Big Question: What can the Spurs expect from an aging Tim Duncan?

Tim Duncan is going to end up in the Hall of Fame. This probably shouldn't surprise you, but the Roundup will make the argument for his candidacy anyway. We’ll take the hardware -- his All-Star appearances (11) , his Finals MVP awards (3) and his NBA MVP awards (2) -- out of the discussion. Just looking just at his on-court statistics (thanks to Basketballreference.com), Duncan is already among the top 50 players in NBA history in the following categories: field goals, free throws (both made and attempted), offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, blocks, points, minutes per game and turnovers.

 Not bad, right?

But Duncan turned 33 this year. He's entering his 13th NBA season. He's played in 899 regular season games (amazingly, he's started all but one of those games) and 160 playoff games.

So the question the Roundup is asking is: Will Duncan's body hold up through the regular season and into the postseason?

Looking at Duncan's postseason numbers from last year aren't really enough. Duncan averaged 19.8 points/8.0 rebounds/1.2 blocks per playoff game last year, compared to a lifetime average of 23.3/12.6/2.6. But with the Spurs playing in only five playoff games last year, it's tough to tell if that's a sign of aging or just the result of a small sample size.

So the Roundup delved a bit further and looked at how a handful of Hall of Fame NBA centers fared in the playoffs after their 33rd birthday. (Specifically, we looked for players who played in a significant number of playoff games both before and after age 33.) The Roundup considered the three categories that the Spurs count on Duncan for the most: points, rebounds and blocks.

Patrick Ewing

Age 32 and below: 20.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 2.3 bpg (97 games total)

Age 33 and above: 16.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.7 bpg (50 games total)

David Robinson

Age 32 and below: 23.4 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 3.1 bpg (62 games total)

Age 33 and above: 12.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg (61 games total)

Hakeem Olajuwon

Age 32 and below: 28.3 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 3.7 bpg (107 games total)

Age 33 and above: 19.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg (38 games total)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Age 32 and below: 30.4 ppg, 15.7 rpg, 3.4 bpg (94 games total)**

Ages 33 and above: 20.3 ppg, 7.0 rbg, 2.1 bpg (143 games total)

**Note: the NBA did not begin recording blocks as a stat until the 1973-74 season, so we've adjusted Abdul-Jabbar's numbers to reflect the 53 playoff games played (before age 33) in which the stat was kept.

We could go further down the list of Hall of Famers, but it's not really necessary to prove the point: Duncan's on the wrong side of both 32 and 1,000 games played. Spurs fans will want to keep an eye on Duncan's health -- and the number of minutes played -- throughout this regular season, because a healthy Duncan in the playoffs could be the single most important factor in a potential title run for the Spurs.

If history is any indicator, Duncan’s point totals will likely begin to drop with each coming season, but the Spurs have enough new offensive talent (read: Richard Jefferson) to make up that deficit. It's Duncan’s rebounding and block totals that the Spurs will need to find to make a major playoff run.

(One more thing: the Roundup did our own math on this one, and our TI-83+ calculator isn't as reliable as it used to be, so if you see any discrepancies, let us know via the email at the bottom of this page.)

For this expanded, season-opening edition of the Roundup, here are five more things to note as the NBA tips off:

1. Manu Ginobli's health

Ginobli's only entering his 8th NBA season, but he's not a young player. He joined the Spurs as a rookie at age 25, and this summer, Ginobli turned 32. 

But here's what's really important for the Spurs: Ginobli is healthy again. Last season, due to an ankle injury, he played in only 44 games, the fewest he's played in his NBA career. But the Spurs hope they can get Ginobli back to his 2007-08 level -- that's the season Ginobli won the NBA's sixth man award – in which he averaged 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. 

Plus, Ginobli's three-point shooting should open up opportunities for Tony Parker and the aforementioned Duncan and Jefferson. At 37.6 percent lifetime, Ginobli is the 92nd best three point shooter in NBA history. 

2. The DeJuan Blair Factor 

DeJuan Blair dropped to the Spurs with the 37th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. To give you an idea of how strange that is, consider this: only one player drafted ahead of Blair might be rated as a better rebounder. 

That player was Blake Griffin, who went no. 1 overall. 

The measurables on Blair are pretty unusual. He's only 6'7'', which makes him undersized as a center, but he has the wingspan of someone who's 7'2''. He just turned 20 this year, so he's the youngest player on the Spurs' roster. 

But the only number that really mattered to other NBA teams who passed on Blair was two. That's the number of ACLs that Blair tore in high school. 

If Blair can stay healthy, he could develop into a force on the defensive end, which would allow the Spurs to keep Duncan rested for the stretch run. 

3. The Shaq Experiment 

If you're reading this, then there is zero chance that you are unaware that Shaquille O'Neal has brought his massive frame (and his 2,462,145 Twitter followers, as of this writing) to Cleveland. 

Now, the Roundup doesn't know if O'Neal and LeBron James will be able to share the same floor. But looking across the Eastern Conference, it's pretty obvious: if they do, they're the team to beat in the East. 

But take note: O'Neal will turn 38 during this season, and since his 33rd birthday, he hasn't averaged more than 20.0 points, 10.6 rebounds or 1.8 blocks per game. He's not the same player who averaged 29.7/13.6/3.0 just a decade ago. Even more worrying for Cavs fans: in that 1999 season, O'Neal averaged 3.8 assists per game. O'Neal has only averaged 2.0 assists per game in one of his previous six seasons. They'll need at least that to help keep James' point totals up. 

Still, it's worth noting that O'Neal's assist rate is still an improvement for the Cavs over previous center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who averages 1.2 assists per season. 

4. Kobe's New Sidekick 

The Los Angeles Lakers return their two most important players: Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. But the Roundup wonders what's going to happen now that Trevor Ariza is gone. 

In the 2009 playoffs, Ariza was spectacular. He shot 49.7 percent from three-point range, averaging 11.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. We'll spare you the wonky details for now, but trust us when we tell you that Ariza's effective field goal percentage, offensive rating and win shares were all impressive. (Note 'The Explainer' below for more.) 

But with Ariza now playing for the Rockets, the Roundup wants to know: who'll make up that scoring for the Lakers. Sasha Vujacic? Lamar Odom? Jordan Farmar? Or could it be new acquisition Ron Artest? The Roundup is withholding judgement... for now. 

5. The Third Contender in the West 

The Roundup won't spend too much time on this one, but we'll say this: one of these four teams is going to contend in the West: Denver, Dallas, Portland or Utah. The only question is: who will it be?

The Roundup invites you to offer your predictions below, in the comments.

A YouTube Moment of Greatness

Each week here on the Roundup, we'd like to offer a YouTube clip of epic proportions. This week: a dunk from Marcus Haislip, who signed with the Spurs this offseason as a free agent after spending a few seasons playing in Europe:

Consider the Following 

Tim Duncan hasn't made a three pointer since March 28, 2007, in a home game against the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets. With a career three-point shooting percentage of 18.8 percent, the Roundup is wondering: will Duncan ever make another three again?

Basketball, Explained.

Starting next week, we'll offer a weekly feature in which we explain things that our readers want to know. Next week, we'll break down a stat that's getting a lot of attention these days: plus-minus. But we're willing to investigate the issues of the day. So: if you've ever wondered about something -- like what a certain player's tattoo means, or why the NBA uses orange balls -- we'll do our best to answer it.

Just send the Roundup an email at doshinsky@kens5.com.