The Spurs' 2009-10 campaign is one-sixteenth of the way through, so now would be a pretty good time to breath, relax and remember that fifteen-sixteenths of the season has yet to be played.
At 3-3, the Spurs aren't exactly dominating competition. But they've also only played six games. The Roundup isn't reneging on our earlier could-be-a-title-contender prediction.
Now, if there's a concern for the Spurs, at least from the Roundup's perspective, it's this team's age. The four most important players on the team -- in no particular order: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson and Tony Parker -- all are between ages 27 and 33. But as the Roundup pointed out two weeks ago, it's not until a player's mid-to-late 30s that production -- at least offensively -- really begins to wane.
Then again, it's worth noting: those four aren't the Spurs' elder statesmen this season; Theo Ratliff (age 36), Michael Finley (36) and Antonio McDyess (35), are.
Which brings us around to the point: with those ages in mind, the Roundup's been wondering what fans can infer from the Spurs' recent subpar performances on consecutive nights.
After winning at home against New Orleans on opening night, the Spurs traveled up to Chicago, played 24 hours later and lost to the Bulls. A few days later, the Spurs went on the road, lost to Utah, and the next night, lost to Portland.
It's only four games, and in no way is the Roundup trying to suggest that four games is a significant amount of data to work off of.
But the Roundup was curious as to how good an indicator winning percentage on back-to-back nights was of championship success. So we looked back at every NBA title winner this decade. Specifically, we looked at those teams' records when playing the second game of consecutive nights. Here's what we found:
-2008-9: Los Angeles Lakers (65-17): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 13-4
-2007-8: Boston Celtics (66-16): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 16-2
-2006-7: San Antonio Spurs (58-24): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 11-5
-2005-6: Miami Heat (52-30): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 8-8
-2004-5: San Antonio Spurs (59-23): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 8-9
-2003-4: Detroit Pistons (54-28): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 14-7
-2002-3: San Antonio Spurs (60-22): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 12-5
-2001-2: Los Angeles Lakers (58-24): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 8-11
-2000-1: Los Angeles Lakers (56-26): Record in 2nd game of back-to-back nights: 10-8
So what can we infer from those numbers? It's certainly possible for a team to struggle with back-to-back games and still win the title. Three teams this decade have had losing records in the second game of a back-to-back and still won the NBA championship. But those three teams all had one thing in common:
Young stars.
The 2001-2 Lakers had a much younger Shaq and an only-playing-in-his-4th-NBA-season Kobe Bryant. The 2005-6 Heat had a slightly older Shaq and Dwayne Wade, playing in only his second year.
As for the Spurs, their top three scorers in 2004-5 were Duncan, Ginobili and Parker. To reach the Finals this year, it's that same trio -- just five years older -- that will have to take them there again.
Around the Web
"[Ginobili] was a monster. We've seen this fright before, but it's been too, too long for Manu. And whether this is a sign of things to come or just a blip on the radar until he's finally in physical range, I could not care less. For one night, there he was. Manu Ginobili. A bad, bad boy." -- Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer on Ginobili's 36 point effort against the Raptors. Agreed on all points.
More of the Manu: "Ginobili came off the bench and had 36 points and eight assists in San Antonio's victory against Toronto on Monday night. He's the first non-starter with at least 36 points and eight or more assists in one game in 18 years - since Phoenix's Dan Majerle had 37 points and nine assists as a reserve against Charlotte on November 29, 1991." -- Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN. The question we're asking: at the end of the season, will Ginobili's historic effort against Toronto will be among the top five Manu moments of the year?
And we'll just give you the headline, via The Onion: "Tim Duncan Makes Citizen's Foul Call."
A YouTube Video That We Do Not Have Express Written Consent to Reproduce Here
Ignore the fact that in this highlight, Andre Iguodala goes from one foul line to the opposite basket -- more than 75 feet, mind you -- while only taking four dribbles. Let's get to what really matters: the finish. Here goes:
Impressive, no? Let's give it the Roundup's first ever "Best First Month of the the Regular Season Power Dunk by a Player Not Named LeBron James" award. Congratulations, Mr. Iguodala. You should be getting your trophy in the mail soon.
And while the Roundup has the floor, we'd like to point out something almost as ugly as the Nets' defense on that play: the crowd that night at the Wachovia Center in Philly, where a smidge over 10,000 -- and that's announced attendance -- showed up for a weekend game against a division rival. Ouch.
Consider the Following
Roger Mason, Jr., is one of 62 players born in the District of Columbia who've gone on to play in the NBA or ABA. But of those 62, Mason is no. 1 in career free throw percentage (at 88.2 percent lifetime, he's a smidge ahead of the no. 2, Kevin Durant) and second all-time in three-point shooting percentage (current ESPN analyst Tim Legler is no. 1 at 43.1 percent).
More worthless trivia: Despite being smaller in both population and total area than both Virginia and Maryland, D.C.'s had more NBA/ABA players than either. Virginia's sent 54 players to the pros; Maryland has 46.
Basketball, Explained
At some point, The Roundup is betting that you've asked yourself whether or not the Spurs would be a better team if they played a bit more up-tempo. The answer -- as the Roundup will explain in this edition of "Basketball, Explained" -- is probably not.
Out of 30 NBA teams, the Spurs rank 25th in pace, according to Basketball Reference. Pace doesn't actually measure the speed at which the game is played, at least not directly. What it does measure are the number of possessions that a team gets during a game. Theoretically, as a team get more possessions on offense, they'll score more points.
As previously mentioned, the Spurs play at the sixth slowest pace in the NBA, with an average of 90.7 possessions per 48 minutes (and that number reflects total possessions in a game). Weirdly, three of the teams that have played at a slower pace this season -- Charlotte, Oklahoma City and Portland -- are all younger teams.
But none of those three teams are as efficient on offense as the Spurs. Ginobili's performance against the Raptors -- needing only 15 shots to score 36 points -- is emblematic of this San Antonio team. The Spurs are second in the NBA in offensive rating, which measures the average number of points that a team will score on a given possession.
If given 100 possessions in each game, the Spurs would average 114.9 points per game so far this season. The league average is about eight points fewer.
What it all means is that the Spurs have been using up more clock on offense, but they've also been scoring on a higher percentage of their possessions.
The bad news: so have opposing teams. The Spurs' defensive rating is 28th out of 30 teams. For each 100 possessions, they're giving up 113 points.
None of the other five worst teams in this category -- and those teams are: the T'Wolves, the 76ers, the Kings, the Grizzles and the Raptors -- could be considered serious playoff contenders.
What it points to is a fundamental issue for coach Gregg Popovich: the Spurs have been great on offense, but they've been equally lousy on defense. To answer the question at the top: playing at a faster pace probably won't improve the team's defensive woes.
The Roundup is a weekly look at Spurs basketball and the NBA. Dan Oshinsky is a digital media producer at KENS 5. He can be reached at doshinsky@kens5.com.
